Game Guy's Sweet Surprise

Game Guy's Sweet Surprise
Appears in	Mario Party 3
Type	Game Guy mini-game
Time limit	10 seconds to select a Chain Chomp
Music track	Game Guy Mini-Game
Music sample

Game Guy's Sweet Surprise is a Game Guy minigame in Mario Party 3.

Gameplay

The player simply has to predict which Chain Chomp will finish eating its cake first. Before selecting a Chain Chomp, the player can read a description of the Chain Chomps' moods. If the player correctly predicts that the Big Chomp will finish first, the player's coins are doubled. However, if the player correctly predicts that the Little Chomp will finish first, their coins are multiplied by an even greater number: either 4, 8, 16, 32, or 64. If the player makes the wrong prediction, they lose all of their coins.

Mechanics

At the beginning of the minigame, the Big Chomp is always assigned a multiplier of 2×, while the Little Chomp is equally likely to be assigned a multiplier of 4×, 8×, 16×, 32×, or 64×. The probability that the Little Chomp finishes its cake first depends entirely on the multiplier assigned to it; the moods of each Chain Chomp do not affect their likelihood of winning.

At a fixed interval, one of the two Chain Chomps takes a bite of the cake. Below are the probabilities of either Chain Chomp taking a bite of its cake during an interval, based on the multiplier assigned to the Little Chomp:

Multiplier	Chance takes a bite	Chance takes a bite
4×	50%	50%
8×	60%	40%
16×	70%	30%
32×	80%	20%
64×	90%	10%

During the same interval, the Chain Chomp that took a bite has a 40% chance to take a second bite. The first Chomp to take six or more bites wins.

This means that the overall probabilities that either Chain Chomp finishes its cake first are as follows, based on the multiplier assigned to the Little Chomp:

Multiplier	Chance wins	Chance wins
4×	50.000%	50.000%
8×	70.927%	29.073%
16×	87.201%	12.799%
32×	96.460%	3.540%
64×	99.654%	0.346%

Expected value

Let B be the number of coins bet. The following table shows the EV for each multiplier assigned to the Little Chomp, as well as whether the player bets on the Big Chomp or the Little Chomp.

Multiplier	Bet on	Bet on	Higher EV
4×	2B × 0.50000 = 1B	4B × 0.50000 = 2B
8×	2B × 0.70927 ≈ 1.419B	8B × 0.29073 ≈ 2.326B
16×	2B × 0.87201 ≈ 1.744B	16B × 0.12799 ≈ 2.048B
32×	2B × 0.96460 ≈ 1.929B	32B × 0.03540 ≈ 1.133B
64×	2B × 0.99654 ≈ 1.993B	64B × 0.00346 ≈ 0.221B

The player should always bet on the Little Chomp if it has a multiplier of 4×, as it has the same chance of winning as the Big Chomp but double the expected value. However, by betting on the Big Chomp when the Little Chomp has a multiplier of 64×, the player is nearly guaranteed to double their coins.

Controls

• or – Choose Chain Chomp
• – Select Chain Chomp

Quotes

Both Chain Chomps can say anything listed below while the player is choosing one of them. These have no effect on the outcome of the game.

• "I'm so hungry I could faint..."
• "I haven't eaten since this morning."
• "Love that cake!"
• "I'm starvin'!"
• "Food! Food!!!"
• "Feed 'em faster!"
• "No...more cake..."
• "My tummy hurts..."
• "It's too sweet..."
• "I like mushrooms more than cake."

In-game text

• Game Guy – "The Big Chomp and the Little Chomp will have a cake-eating race. Predict which one will be the quicker cake eater. If you guess right, you'll get more coins. But, if you guess wrong, your coins will be mine."

Gallery

• 

  A rare case of the Little Chomp winning. The Big Chomp did not even get a chance to bite the cake.

Names in other languages

Language	Name	Meaning	Notes
Japanese	ケーキでバトル[?] Kēki de batoru	Battle with Cake