The following distributions are used by version 4.1 of Mario Kart 8 to determine the probability of obtaining a certain item when an Item Box is opened.[1] The tables have the same structure seen in Mario Kart 7, with the column number of each item being the same for the items featured in both games and the probability coded as a percentage multiplied by two.
These item probability distributions are used in the demonstrations of the gameplay that are shown in the title screen. Although 20 sets are defined for them, only the second, third and fourth actually contain at least a probability value different from zero.
Item probability distributions (Title screen, second set)
Distribution
1
100
60
10
30
2
40
50
70
20
10
10
3
30
50
50
20
20
10
20
4
30
50
30
40
10
20
20
5
30
40
10
60
30
20
10
6
30
40
70
40
10
10
7
30
40
70
50
10
8
30
30
80
60
9
30
30
80
60
10
30
20
80
70
11
30
20
70
80
12
30
20
60
90
Item probability distributions (Title screen, third and fourth set)
Distribution
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
200
10
200
11
200
12
200
Races (S2)
During races, each probability distribution is chosen depending on the distance from the frontrunner in the moment the Item Box was opened. The distance reported is the one at which the switch to the next distribution happens.
Versus races feature five additional distributions sets whose distributions are all made to obtain a specific item and whose purpose is unclear. Most of them are reported without the distance as it is not determined whether they are used by drivers controlled by players or by the software.
Grand Prix races
Item probability distributions (Grand Prix races, drivers controlled by players)
Distance (units)
400
65
50
5
5
5
70
1000
20
25
50
20
10
10
10
5
5
15
15
10
5
2000
10
20
30
25
15
15
10
15
5
10
5
10
10
15
5
3300
15
20
50
5
5
60
5
5
10
10
10
5
5500
10
30
5
5
85
25
10
25
5
8000
10
5
65
40
30
5
40
5
13000
5
35
35
60
10
55
26000
10
30
85
15
60
999998
30
40
70
60
999999
30
40
70
60
Item probability distributions (Grand Prix races, drivers controlled by software)
Distance (units)
300
50
40
15
10
5
70
10
700
25
30
60
15
5
5
10
5
5
20
10
10
1300
30
35
30
25
10
10
10
5
10
15
10
10
2600
30
35
15
45
10
5
25
5
5
5
5
15
4500
30
35
5
50
5
3
47
10
10
5
7000
15
20
50
4
58
20
10
3
20
13000
10
10
30
57
30
30
3
30
26000
10
10
10
42
30
55
3
40
999998
30
60
30
50
30
999999
30
60
30
50
30
Versus Races
All Items
Item probability distributions (Versus Races, All items, drivers controlled by players)
Distance (units)
400
60
50
5
5
80
1000
15
25
45
20
10
5
10
10
10
5
20
10
10
5
2000
5
15
35
30
10
25
10
15
5
10
5
10
10
10
5
3300
15
18
50
5
2
65
10
5
5
10
10
5
5500
25
10
5
85
33
10
2
25
5
8000
10
5
65
40
30
5
40
5
13000
2
40
30
65
8
55
26000
20
25
90
10
55
999998
40
30
70
60
999999
40
30
70
60
Item probability distributions (Versus Races, All items, drivers controlled by software)
Distance (units)
300
60
45
15
5
75
700
30
35
55
10
5
5
10
10
5
20
10
5
1300
30
35
30
20
15
10
10
5
5
10
10
10
10
2600
30
40
15
40
10
10
20
5
5
5
5
15
4500
30
40
50
10
5
40
10
10
5
7000
15
30
55
5
40
20
10
5
20
13000
10
10
40
45
30
30
5
30
26000
10
10
20
30
30
55
5
40
999998
30
60
30
50
30
999999
30
60
30
50
30
Mushrooms Only
Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Mushrooms Only, drivers controlled by players)
Distance (units)
400
100
100
1000
100
50
50
2000
100
85
15
3300
70
130
5500
30
130
40
8000
120
80
13000
80
120
26000
40
160
999998
100
100
999999
100
100
Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Mushrooms Only, drivers controlled by software)
Distance (units)
300
120
80
700
120
40
40
1300
110
80
10
2600
110
90
4500
90
80
30
7000
70
70
60
13000
50
60
90
26000
50
60
90
999998
50
110
40
999999
50
110
40
Shells Only
Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Shells Only, drivers controlled by players)
Distance (units)
400
100
100
1000
90
30
40
30
10
2000
60
60
10
40
30
3300
40
65
5
50
40
5500
20
70
10
50
50
8000
60
10
50
80
13000
50
10
50
90
26000
50
10
50
90
999998
200
999999
200
Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Shells Only, drivers controlled by software)
Distance (units)
300
120
80
700
90
50
40
20
1300
80
70
10
40
2600
70
65
5
60
4500
60
55
5
80
7000
45
50
5
100
13000
35
40
5
120
26000
25
30
5
140
999998
200
999999
200
Bananas Only
Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Bananas Only, drivers controlled by players)
Distance (units)
400
100
100
1000
115
50
35
2000
120
15
65
3300
110
90
5500
80
120
8000
50
150
13000
20
180
26000
20
180
999998
200
999999
200
Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Bananas Only, drivers controlled by software)
Distance (units)
300
120
80
700
130
40
30
1300
140
10
50
2600
130
70
4500
110
90
7000
90
110
13000
70
130
26000
70
130
999998
200
999999
200
Bob-ombs Only
Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Bob-ombs Only, drivers controlled by players)
Distance (units)
400
100
100
1000
130
70
2000
160
40
3300
180
20
5500
190
10
8000
200
13000
200
26000
200
999998
200
999999
200
Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Bob-ombs Only, drivers controlled by software)
Distance (units)
300
120
80
700
150
50
1300
170
30
2600
190
10
4500
190
10
7000
200
13000
200
26000
200
999998
200
999999
200
Additional sets
Item probability distributions (Versus Races, additional Mushrooms Only distributions, drivers controlled by players)
Distance (units)
400
200
1000
200
2000
200
3300
200
5500
200
8000
200
13000
200
26000
200
999998
200
999999
200
Item probability distributions (Versus Races, additional Mushrooms Only distributions, drivers controlled by software)
Distance (units)
300
200
700
200
1300
200
2600
200
4500
200
7000
200
13000
200
26000
200
999998
200
999999
200
Item probability distributions (Versus Races, additional Shells Only distributions)
Distribution
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
200
10
200
Item probability distributions (Versus Races, additional Bananas Only distributions)
Distribution
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
200
10
200
Item probability distributions (Versus Races, additional Bob-ombs Only distributions)
Distribution
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
200
10
200
Item probability distributions (Versus Races, second set of additional Mushrooms Only distributions)
Distribution
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
200
10
200
Frantic Mode
Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Frantic Mode, drivers controlled by players)
Distance (units)
400
30
25
10
25
10
45
30
25
1000
5
5
30
20
15
10
15
15
15
15
5
20
20
10
2000
10
10
15
5
5
25
15
15
20
15
15
10
15
20
5
3300
5
10
10
45
40
15
20
5
5
5
5
10
15
10
5500
10
45
55
30
5
40
10
5
8000
5
35
55
45
5
50
5
13000
25
40
65
10
60
26000
10
30
85
10
65
999998
30
40
70
60
999999
30
40
70
60
Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Frantic Mode, drivers controlled by software)
Distance (units)
300
35
35
20
15
5
60
15
15
700
15
20
45
15
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
15
20
1300
15
20
25
20
15
30
10
10
10
5
10
10
20
2600
15
20
10
25
10
10
5
40
20
10
5
5
5
5
15
4500
15
20
25
10
5
40
30
15
5
30
5
7000
10
10
20
10
35
40
30
5
40
13000
5
5
15
5
30
35
50
5
50
26000
5
5
10
25
30
60
5
60
999998
20
30
30
60
60
999999
20
30
30
60
60
Special purpose (S3)
These five distributions are used for special item drops, such as the items dropped from broken crates.
Item probability distributions (Special purpose)
Distribution
1
70
70
60
2
200
3
70
70
60
4
200
5
200
Battle Mode (S4)
In Battle Mode, the probability depends both on the time and on the number of balloons left. The conditions reported here are derived from the official Prima Games guide.[2]
Just like with Versus Races, there are additional distributions sets whose purpose is unclear.
All Items
Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, All items, drivers controlled by players)
Minutes left
Balloons left
More than 2
More than 2
30
130
10
30
More than 2
2
15
110
5
15
5
50
More than 2
1
75
10
20
10
15
70
Between 2 and 1
More than 2
20
135
10
35
Between 2 and 1
2
10
100
5
5
15
10
55
Between 2 and 1
1
15
15
10
20
10
5
15
5
20
10
75
Less than 1
More than 2
20
130
10
40
Less than 1
2
95
10
5
15
5
10
60
Less than 1
1
20
10
20
10
10
15
10
15
10
80
0
100
100
Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, All items, drivers controlled by software)
Minutes left
Balloons left
More than 2
More than 2
20
165
5
10
More than 2
2
10
140
10
10
30
More than 2
1
100
20
30
50
Between 2 and 1
More than 2
20
150
10
20
Between 2 and 1
2
10
110
10
10
20
40
Between 2 and 1
1
35
20
20
15
10
10
10
5
10
10
55
Less than 1
More than 2
20
135
5
40
Less than 1
2
10
85
20
10
20
5
50
Less than 1
1
20
30
20
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
60
0
200
Mushrooms Only
Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, Mushrooms Only, drivers controlled by players)
Minutes left
Balloons left
More than 2
More than 2
200
More than 2
2
140
60
More than 2
1
100
100
Between 2 and 1
More than 2
180
20
Between 2 and 1
2
120
80
Between 2 and 1
1
70
100
30
Less than 1
More than 2
170
30
Less than 1
2
100
80
20
Less than 1
1
50
90
60
0
200
Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, Mushrooms Only, drivers controlled by software)
Minutes left
Balloons left
More than 2
More than 2
200
More than 2
2
120
80
More than 2
1
80
120
Between 2 and 1
More than 2
160
40
Between 2 and 1
2
100
100
Between 2 and 1
1
40
120
40
Less than 1
More than 2
150
50
Less than 1
2
70
100
30
Less than 1
1
20
100
80
0
200
Shells Only
Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, Shells Only, drivers controlled by players)
Minutes left
Balloons left
More than 2
More than 2
160
40
More than 2
2
140
60
More than 2
1
80
20
100
Between 2 and 1
More than 2
140
60
Between 2 and 1
2
100
20
80
Between 2 and 1
1
50
40
110
Less than 1
More than 2
130
70
Less than 1
2
70
30
100
Less than 1
1
30
50
120
0
200
Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, Shells Only, drivers controlled by software)
Minutes left
Balloons left
More than 2
More than 2
170
30
More than 2
2
140
60
More than 2
1
80
30
90
Between 2 and 1
More than 2
160
40
Between 2 and 1
2
110
20
70
Between 2 and 1
1
50
40
110
Less than 1
More than 2
150
50
Less than 1
2
90
30
80
Less than 1
1
30
60
110
0
200
Bananas Only
Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, Bananas Only, drivers controlled by players)
Minutes left
Balloons left
More than 2
More than 2
200
More than 2
2
170
30
More than 2
1
130
70
Between 2 and 1
More than 2
170
30
Between 2 and 1
2
130
70
Between 2 and 1
1
80
120
Less than 1
More than 2
150
50
Less than 1
2
100
100
Less than 1
1
50
150
0
200
Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, Bananas Only, drivers controlled by software)
Minutes left
Balloons left
More than 2
More than 2
200
More than 2
2
160
40
More than 2
1
120
80
Between 2 and 1
More than 2
160
40
Between 2 and 1
2
120
80
Between 2 and 1
1
70
130
Less than 1
More than 2
140
60
Less than 1
2
90
110
Less than 1
1
40
160
0
200
Bob-ombs Only
Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, Bob-ombs Only, drivers controlled by players and drivers controlled by software)
Minutes left
Balloons left
More than 2
More than 2
200
More than 2
2
200
More than 2
1
200
Between 2 and 1
More than 2
200
Between 2 and 1
2
200
Between 2 and 1
1
200
Less than 1
More than 2
200
Less than 1
2
200
Less than 1
1
200
0
200
Additional sets
Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, additional Green Shells and Bananas Only distributions)
Minutes left
Balloons left
More than 2
More than 2
200
More than 2
2
200
More than 2
1
200
Between 2 and 1
More than 2
200
Between 2 and 1
2
200
Between 2 and 1
1
200
Less than 1
More than 2
200
Less than 1
2
200
Less than 1
1
200
0
200
Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, additional Mushrooms Only distributions)
Minutes left
Balloons left
More than 2
More than 2
200
More than 2
2
200
More than 2
1
200
Between 2 and 1
More than 2
200
Between 2 and 1
2
200
Between 2 and 1
1
200
Less than 1
More than 2
200
Less than 1
2
200
Less than 1
1
200
0
200
Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, additional Green Shells Only distributions)
Minutes left
Balloons left
More than 2
More than 2
200
More than 2
2
200
More than 2
1
200
Between 2 and 1
More than 2
200
Between 2 and 1
2
200
Between 2 and 1
1
200
Less than 1
More than 2
200
Less than 1
2
200
Less than 1
1
200
0
200
Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, additional Bananas Only distributions)
Minutes left
Balloons left
More than 2
More than 2
200
More than 2
2
200
More than 2
1
200
Between 2 and 1
More than 2
200
Between 2 and 1
2
200
Between 2 and 1
1
200
Less than 1
More than 2
200
Less than 1
2
200
Less than 1
1
200
0
200
Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, additional Bob-ombs Only distributions)
Minutes left
Balloons left
More than 2
More than 2
200
More than 2
2
200
More than 2
1
200
Between 2 and 1
More than 2
200
Between 2 and 1
2
200
Between 2 and 1
1
200
Less than 1
More than 2
200
Less than 1
2
200
Less than 1
1
200
0
200
Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, additional Green Shells and Bananas Only distributions)
Minutes left
Balloons left
More than 2
More than 2
200
More than 2
2
200
More than 2
1
200
Between 2 and 1
More than 2
200
Between 2 and 1
2
200
Between 2 and 1
1
200
Less than 1
More than 2
200
Less than 1
2
200
Less than 1
1
200
0
200
Frantic Mode
Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, Frantic Mode, drivers controlled by players)
Minutes left
Balloons left
More than 2
More than 2
20
50
10
30
20
20
50
More than 2
2
10
30
10
30
20
10
20
10
60
More than 2
1
5
10
10
25
10
5
20
15
15
15
70
Between 2 and 1
More than 2
10
40
10
30
20
10
20
10
50
Between 2 and 1
2
20
10
10
25
5
20
20
20
10
60
Between 2 and 1
1
20
5
20
10
10
20
20
15
10
70
Less than 1
More than 2
40
10
30
20
15
20
15
50
Less than 1
2
20
15
5
20
10
20
20
20
10
60
Less than 1
1
30
5
10
10
20
20
20
15
5
65
0
90
80
30
Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, Frantic Mode, drivers controlled by software)
^"Battle Item Probabilities" – Musa, Alexander (May 30, 2014). Mario Kart 8 PRIMA Official Game Guide. Prima Games (American English). ISBN 978-0-804-16328-6. Page 19.