Mario Kart Tour item probability distributions

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The following item probability distributions are used by Mario Kart Tour to determine the probability of obtaining a certain item when an Item Box is opened. Such a probability is coded as a percentage multiplied by two. Text directly derived from in-game data is reported in italics.

General rules

It has been requested that this section be rewritten. Reason: cleaner formulation

During races, the item probability distribution is chosen depending on the current position in the ranking at the moment the Item Box is opened.

Whether or not the Item Box will activate Frenzy mode will be determined first. If the player has Auto Item off, then it is not possible for them to activate Frenzy mode if a Spiny Shell, a Bullet Bill, Lightning, a Mega Mushroom, a Coin Box, Banana Barrels, a Mushroom Cannon or a Bob-omb Cannon are being hold.

The following restrictions hold for the non-Frenzy item distribitions:

  • The player can not hold three of the same items.
  • A Mega Mushroom, a Bullet Bill, a Super Horn, Banana Barrels, a Mushroom Cannon, a Coin Box and a Bob-omb Cannon can not appear if the player already holds one.
  • A Spiny Shell can not be obtained before 30 seconds have elapsed and can not appear for 30 seconds after one has been obtained.
  • A Blooper can not appear for 30 seconds after one has been obtained (this does not hold for Bloopers that are part of a Lucky Seven).
  • A Bullet Bill can not be obtained before 35 seconds have elapsed and can not appear for 10 seconds after one has been obtained.
  • Lightning can not be obtained before 20 seconds have elapsed and can not appear for 60 seconds after one has been obtained.

If items can not be obtained according to this restrictions, the corresponding percentages will be set to zero and the percentages of the other items will be scaled up such that the sum of the percentages will be unity.

Regular races

Non-Frenzy

The following tables are for situations where Frenzy mode is not activated. Boosted probabilities from gliders are not included. If the special item has a probability to be obtained, the percentages of the other items will be scaled down such that the sum of the percentages will be unity.

Drivers controlled by players, first item box
Item 1st place 2nd place 3rd place 4th place 5th place 6th place 7th place 8th place
 
Banana
10 15 35 45 0 0 0 0
 
Green Shell
5 20 20 25 50 35 0 0
 
Red Shell
0 20 5 5 15 10 0 0
 
Spiny Shell
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
 
Bob-omb
0 0 5 10 10 20 0 0
 
Mushroom
0 5 5 15 25 30 85 95
 
Mega Mushroom
0 0 0 0 0 5 15 5
 
Bullet Bill
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
 
Blooper
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
 
Lightning
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
 
Super Horn
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
 
Coin
85 40 30 0 0 0 0 0
Drivers controlled by players, subsequent item boxes
Item 1st place 2nd place 3rd place 4th place 5th place 6th place 7th place 8th place
 
Banana
35 12 20 15 0 0 0 0
 
Green Shell
20 15 20 18 8 8 0 0
 
Red Shell
0 48 20 20 25 17 0 0
 
Spiny Shell
0 0 0 0 5 5 3 0
 
Bob-omb
1 3 10 15 10 10 0 0
 
Mushroom
5 12 25 29 20 25 30 21
 
Mega Mushroom
0 0 0 0 27 30 40 30
 
Bullet Bill
0 0 0 0 0 0 25 40
 
Blooper
0 0 0 3 5 5 0 0
 
Lightning
0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9
 
Super Horn
4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
 
Coin
35 10 5 0 0 0 0 0
Special Items
 
Triple Bananas
20 15 35 30 25 0 0 0
 
Giant Banana
20 15 35 30 25 0 0 0
 
Triple Green Shells
0 30 20 25 35 15 0 0
 
Bowser's Shell
0 0 15 35 40 30 30 0
 
Double Bob-ombs
0 30 20 25 35 15 0 0
 
Triple Mushrooms
0 0 15 35 40 30 30 0
 
Fire Flower
0 30 20 25 35 15 0 0
 
Boomerang Flower
0 30 20 25 35 15 0 0
 
Ice Flower
0 30 20 25 35 15 0 0
 
Heart
0 0 15 35 40 30 30 0
 
Yoshi's Egg
0 30 20 25 35 15 0 0
 
Birdo's Egg
0 30 20 25 35 15 0 0
 
Bubble
0 0 15 35 40 30 30 0
 
Banana Barrels
0 0 15 35 40 30 30 0
 
Mushroom Cannon
0 0 15 35 40 30 30 0
 
Lucky Seven
0 0 15 35 40 30 30 0
 
Coin Box
20 15 35 30 25 0 0 0
 
Dash Ring
0 0 15 35 40 30 30 0
 
Bob-omb Cannon
0 0 15 35 40 30 30 0
 
Hammer
0 30 20 25 35 15 0 0

Frenzy

The following tables are for situations where Frenzy mode is activated. Boosted probabilities from driver skill levels or gliders are not included. If the special item has a probability to be obtained, the percentages of the other items will be scaled down such that the sum of the percentages will be unity.

Drivers controlled by players, 1st lap/section
Item 1st place 2nd place 3rd place 4th place 5th place 6th place 7th place 8th place
Activating Frenzy 5 6 7 9 13 15 18 22
Regular Items
 
Banana
30 25 35 15 5 0 0 0
 
Green Shell
10 30 25 30 5 8 0 0
 
Red Shell
0 15 10 10 10 22 27 0
 
Spiny Shell
0 0 0 0 5 5 6 0
 
Bob-omb
0 10 25 25 30 15 0 0
 
Mushroom
0 0 5 5 22 20 35 40
 
Mega Mushroom
0 0 0 0 5 20 20 40
 
Bullet Bill
0 0 0 0 0 0 6 10
 
Blooper
0 0 0 15 18 18 0 0
 
Lightning
0 0 0 0 0 0 6 10
 
Super Horn
10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
 
Coin
50 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Special Items
 
Triple Bananas
20 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 0 0 0
 
Giant Banana
20 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 0 0 0
 
Triple Green Shells
0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 20 0 0
 
Bowser's Shell
0 0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 33.333 0
 
Double Bob-ombs
0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 20 0 0
 
Triple Mushrooms
0 0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 33.333 0
 
Fire Flower
0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 20 0 0
 
Boomerang Flower
0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 20 0 0
 
Ice Flower
0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 20 0 0
 
Heart
0 0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 33.333 0
 
Yoshi's Egg
0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 20 0 0
 
Birdo's Egg
0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 20 0 0
 
Bubble
0 0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 33.333 0
 
Banana Barrels
0 0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 33.333 0
 
Mushroom Cannon
0 0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 33.333 0
 
Lucky Seven
0 0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 33.333 0
 
Coin Box
20 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 33.333 0 0
 
Dash Ring
0 0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 33.333 0
 
Bob-omb Cannon
0 0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 33.333 0
 
Hammer
0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 20 0 0
Drivers controlled by players, 2nd lap/section or 3rd section
Item 1st place 2nd place 3rd place 4th place 5th place 6th place 7th place 8th place
Activating Frenzy 6 7 11 12 18 22 29 41
Regular Items
 
Banana
30 25 35 15 5 0 0 0
 
Green Shell
10 30 25 30 5 8 0 0
 
Red Shell
0 15 10 10 10 22 27 0
 
Spiny Shell
0 0 0 0 5 5 6 0
 
Bob-omb
0 10 25 25 30 15 0 0
 
Mushroom
0 0 5 5 22 20 35 40
 
Mega Mushroom
0 0 0 0 5 20 20 40
 
Bullet Bill
0 0 0 0 0 0 6 10
 
Blooper
0 0 0 15 18 18 0 0
 
Lightning
0 0 0 0 0 0 6 10
 
Super Horn
10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
 
Coin
50 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Special Items
 
Triple Bananas
20 33.333 50 50 50 0 0 0
 
Giant Banana
20 33.333 50 50 50 0 0 0
 
Triple Green Shells
0 33.333 50 50 50 33.333 0 0
 
Bowser's Shell
0 0 33.333 50 50 50 50 0
 
Double Bob-ombs
0 33.333 50 50 50 33.333 0 0
 
Triple Mushrooms
0 0 33.333 50 50 50 50 0
 
Fire Flower
0 33.333 50 50 50 33.333 0 0
 
Boomerang Flower
0 33.333 50 50 50 33.333 0 0
 
Ice Flower
0 33.333 50 50 50 33.333 0 0
 
Heart
0 0 33.333 50 50 50 50 0
 
Yoshi's Egg
0 33.333 50 50 50 33.333 0 0
 
Birdo's Egg
0 33.333 50 50 50 33.333 0 0
 
Bubble
0 0 33.333 50 50 50 50 0
 
Banana Barrels
0 0 33.333 50 50 50 50 0
 
Mushroom Cannon
0 0 33.333 50 50 50 50 0
 
Lucky Seven
0 0 33.333 50 50 50 50 0
 
Coin Box
20 33.333 50 50 50 50 50 0
 
Dash Ring
0 0 33.333 50 50 50 50 0
 
Bob-omb Cannon
0 0 33.333 50 50 50 50 0
 
Hammer
0 33.333 50 50 50 33.333 0 0

Multiplayer races

It has been requested that this section be rewritten and expanded to include more information.

See also